{
  "schema": "intrikata-stack.awits-v3.2-live/v1",
  "supersedes": "intrikata-stack.awits-reverse-topo-v3.1/v1",
  "cycle": "inv-awits-v32-rdgap-probes-20260823",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z",
  "snapshotAsOf": "2026-08-21",
  "liveProduct": "https://areweinthesingularity.com",
  "alias": "https://awits.intrikata.com",
  "docs": "https://docs.intrikata.com/awits-withheld",
  "console_mirror": "https://intrikata.com/data/awits-v32-live.json",
  "topology_contract": "https://topology.intrikata.com/contracts/awits-rdgap-capability-impl.json",
  "claim": "operational-occurrence-claim-and-forward-projections-definitional-undecidable",
  "isSingularityProbability": false,
  "isForwardClaim": true,
  "forwardClaimKind": "public-proxy-stress-envelope-not-singularity-probability",
  "decision_weight": 0,
  "necessity_weight": 0,
  "heading": "AWITS v3.2 — published public-proxy forecast and operational occurrence",
  "modelVersion": "v3.2-live-authority-forward-occurrence-2026-08-23",
  "decisionAuthority": "v3.2",
  "channelsScore": 50,
  "decisionScore": 49,
  "hysteresis": {
    "exit": 65,
    "entry": 70,
    "note": "not-lowered"
  },
  "forecast": {
    "authorized": true,
    "status": "published",
    "withheldReason": "Published under v3.2 live authority. 7/30/90 envelopes are public-proxy stress ranges, not a singularity probability.",
    "promotionStage": "prospective-shadow-only",
    "targetId": "public-proxy-stress-index",
    "targetVersion": "public-proxy-stress-index-market-v2.3",
    "targetLabel": "Future public-proxy stress index",
    "targetDefinition": "The same versioned public-proxy index observed on or after each resolution date; this is not a singularity occurrence label.",
    "issuedAt": "2026-08-23T15:39:57.062Z",
    "isSingularityProbability": false,
    "method": "adaptive-prequential-delta-envelope",
    "intervalMeaning": "80% adaptive prequential envelope around prior-only historical calendar-horizon changes; marginal time-average target, not a conditional guarantee or singularity probability.",
    "calibration": "adaptive-prequential-evidence-accumulating",
    "benchmark": "persistence-current-score",
    "skillStatus": "persistence-baseline-only",
    "historyObservations": 201,
    "horizons": [
      {
        "horizonDays": 7,
        "resolvesAt": "2026-08-30T15:39:57.062Z",
        "low": 43.5,
        "median": 49,
        "high": 55,
        "baseLow": 43.5,
        "baseHigh": 55,
        "calibrationAdjustment": 0,
        "calibrationSamples": 120,
        "calibrationStatus": "adaptive-prequential",
        "targetCoverage": 0.8,
        "adaptiveAlpha": 0.33,
        "latestCalibrationResolutionAt": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
        "simulationRuns": 196,
        "thresholdScenarioShare": null,
        "thresholdSupport": "insufficient-positive-history"
      },
      {
        "horizonDays": 30,
        "resolvesAt": "2026-09-22T15:39:57.062Z",
        "low": 41.8,
        "median": 49,
        "high": 58,
        "baseLow": 41.8,
        "baseHigh": 58,
        "calibrationAdjustment": 0,
        "calibrationSamples": 120,
        "calibrationStatus": "adaptive-prequential",
        "targetCoverage": 0.8,
        "adaptiveAlpha": 0.386,
        "latestCalibrationResolutionAt": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
        "simulationRuns": 179,
        "thresholdScenarioShare": null,
        "thresholdSupport": "insufficient-positive-history"
      },
      {
        "horizonDays": 90,
        "resolvesAt": "2026-11-21T15:39:57.062Z",
        "low": 36.8,
        "median": 49,
        "high": 63,
        "baseLow": 41.8,
        "baseHigh": 58,
        "calibrationAdjustment": 5,
        "calibrationSamples": 120,
        "calibrationStatus": "adaptive-prequential",
        "targetCoverage": 0.8,
        "adaptiveAlpha": 0.226,
        "latestCalibrationResolutionAt": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
        "simulationRuns": 139,
        "thresholdScenarioShare": null,
        "thresholdSupport": "insufficient-positive-history"
      }
    ]
  },
  "occurrence": {
    "enabled": true,
    "authority": "v3.2",
    "asOf": "2026-08-21",
    "operational": {
      "criterion": "established-public-proxy-stress-active-v3-hysteresis",
      "occurred": false,
      "state": "stress-inactive",
      "hysteresis": {
        "exit": 65,
        "entry": 70
      },
      "note": "Operational occurrence is claimed as not-occurred: finalized public-proxy residuals established an inactive stress regime. Absence of proxy stress is not definitional proof the singularity is absent."
    },
    "definitional": {
      "occurred": null,
      "residual": "T-DEFINITIONAL",
      "note": "Definitional singularity occurrence cannot be decided from public proxies. Named Tarski residual; not silently defaulted."
    },
    "publicClaim": "not-occurred-under-operational-criterion",
    "isSingularityProbability": false
  },
  "reverseTimeLookbacks": [
    {
      "lookbackDays": 7,
      "kind": "realized-past-not-forward-range",
      "observations": 5,
      "from": "2026-08-17",
      "to": "2026-08-21",
      "lastScore": 49,
      "min": 46,
      "max": 51,
      "mean": 48.8
    },
    {
      "lookbackDays": 30,
      "kind": "realized-past-not-forward-range",
      "observations": 22,
      "from": "2026-07-23",
      "to": "2026-08-21",
      "lastScore": 49,
      "min": 42,
      "max": 53,
      "mean": 48.1
    },
    {
      "lookbackDays": 90,
      "kind": "realized-past-not-forward-range",
      "observations": 62,
      "from": "2026-05-26",
      "to": "2026-08-21",
      "lastScore": 49,
      "min": 42,
      "max": 55,
      "mean": 48.2
    }
  ],
  "reverseTopoLatestForward": {
    "horizonDays": 1,
    "asOf": "2026-08-20",
    "resolvesAt": "2026-08-21",
    "predicted": 49,
    "low": 45.08,
    "high": 51.92,
    "predictor": "reverse-topo-reversion"
  },
  "capabilityImplementation": {
    "claim": "workstream-probes-implemented-not-frontier-capabilities",
    "probesPassed": 37,
    "probesTotal": 37,
    "allProbesPassed": true,
    "allFrontierClaimsWithheld": true,
    "allWorkstreamReadinessUnmeasured": true,
    "byClass": {
      "decidable": 8,
      "semi-decidable": 17,
      "tarski-residual": 12
    },
    "byKind": {
      "snapshot-bound": 10,
      "uncovered-named": 15,
      "tarski-named": 12
    }
  },
  "distanceToTarskiLimit": "UNDECIDABLE",
  "singularityDeclared": false,
  "verdict": "v3.2-published-7-30-90-operational-not-occurred",
  "verdict_meaning": "v3.2 publishes 7/30/90 public-proxy envelopes. Operational occurrence is not-occurred under hysteresis 65/70. Definitional occurrence is T-DEFINITIONAL. 37/37 rdgap probes are public-proxy implementations, not frontier completion."
}